Eric Jackson, CEO of EMJ Capital, has proposed a thesis that challenges conventional thinking about Bitcoin’s ultimate role in global finance. Rather than viewing the cryptocurrency as a speculative asset or store of value competing with commodities like gold, Jackson suggests Bitcoin could evolve into the neutral collateral layer underpinning sovereign debt issuance and central bank operations worldwide. His “Vision 2041” framework projects Bitcoin reaching $50 million per coin by 2041—a valuation roughly 545 times current prices around $91,000—if his hypothesis proves correct.
This thesis extends beyond the familiar “digital gold” narrative that has dominated Bitcoin discourse since its early adoption as inflation hedge and alternative currency. Jackson’s framework positions Bitcoin not merely as an asset individuals seek to get bitcoins to preserve wealth, but rather as infrastructure-level collateral that would replace the Eurodollar system and sovereign debt instruments as the foundation upon which all other balance sheets rest. For investors, policymakers, and financial institutions, understanding this structural thesis is essential for evaluating Bitcoin’s long-term potential within the global monetary system.
The Historical Context: From Gold to Eurodollars to Bitcoin
Jackson’s analytical framework traces the evolution of financial system “plumbing”—the base collateral layer upon which governments, central banks, and commercial institutions conduct transactions and secure lending. This foundation has shifted dramatically across centuries, with each transition representing profound restructuring of global finance.
The Gold Standard Era: For centuries, gold served as the primary reserve asset and collateral underlying international commerce. Its tangibility, scarcity, and universal acceptance made it ideal for backing currency and securing sovereign debt. However, gold’s physical constraints—limited supply, high storage costs, and difficulty transferring across borders—eventually created inefficiencies as global trade expanded.
The Eurodollar System (1960s-Present): When the Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971, the global financial system transitioned toward dollar-denominated assets and U.S. Treasury securities as primary collateral. This created the Eurodollar market—a vast network of dollar-denominated liabilities and deposits existing outside the United States, now estimated at approximately $57 trillion in total outstanding. Governments worldwide could issue debt denominated in dollars, with U.S. Treasuries serving as the ultimate backing asset.
However, Jackson identifies critical problems with the Eurodollar system. It concentrates immense geopolitical leverage in the United States, making the collateral layer subject to political whims, treasury secretary decisions, and macroeconomic policy choices of a single nation. When sanctions, capital controls, or monetary policy changes occur, the entire global financial system reverberates through disruptions to the collateral base.
The Bitcoin Thesis: Jackson proposes that Bitcoin—an apolitical, digital, mathematically scarce asset existing outside any nation’s control—could serve as superior collateral for the next evolution of global finance. Unlike gold (physically cumbersome) or dollars (politically controlled), Bitcoin offers a neutral asset that no central bank, treasury department, or political actor can manipulate or weaponize.
Understanding “Vision 2041”: The Global Collateral Layer
At the core of Jackson’s framework is the concept of a “global collateral layer”—the fundamental asset base upon which all sovereign borrowing, central bank operations, and international transactions depend. This layer is analogous to the foundation of a building; without solid underpinning, the entire structure becomes vulnerable.
Currently, sovereign nations operate by issuing debt instruments and then borrowing against those instruments to conduct daily government operations. The United States issues Treasury securities; Japan issues government bonds; the European Central Bank issues deposits backed by government securities. All of this operates within the Eurodollar infrastructure, where dollars themselves represent claims on U.S. assets and Treasury backing.
Jackson’s radical proposition: What if sovereigns, instead of issuing debt and then borrowing against it, could instead denominate borrowing and operations directly against Bitcoin holdings? In this scenario, nations would accumulate Bitcoin as reserve asset, similar to how they currently accumulate Treasury securities and foreign currency reserves. The primary difference is that Bitcoin, being decentralized and subject to no nation’s monetary policy, would function as truly neutral collateral.
“Over time, like, that’s much more logical,” Jackson stated in describing why sovereigns might make this transition. As geopolitical tensions increase and currency weaponization accelerates, nations face mounting incentives to diversify away from dollar-denominated reserves toward an asset that cannot be seized, frozen, or controlled by external actors. Bitcoin satisfies this requirement uniquely.
The Mathematics of $50 Million Bitcoin
Jackson’s $50 million price target by 2041 is not arbitrary speculation but rather mathematical derivation based on collateral layer replacement assumptions. The calculation hinges on a straightforward principle: if Bitcoin becomes the primary collateral backing global sovereign debt, its valuation must scale to represent that role.
The Calculation Framework:
Global Sovereign Debt Scale: Currently, total outstanding government debt worldwide exceeds $300 trillion. Central banks maintain foreign currency reserves totaling approximately $14 trillion. If this system transitioned to Bitcoin-backed collateral, the cryptocurrency would need to support this immense asset base.
Fixed Supply Constraint: Bitcoin’s supply is capped at 21 million coins (with approximately 19.5 million currently in circulation). This fixed supply creates mathematical scarcity that amplifies valuation when demand expands dramatically.
Proportional Valuation: If $300 trillion in sovereign debt requires Bitcoin backing, and only 21 million Bitcoin exist, the mathematical equation becomes: $300 trillion ÷ 21 million = approximately $14.3 million per Bitcoin just for basic backing. Jackson’s $50 million target assumes additional premium for market dynamics, international commerce scaling, and velocity increases.
This represents a “hundred-bagger” investment opportunity in Jackson’s terminology—a 100x return from current levels. Jackson has successfully identified hundred-bagger opportunities before, citing his recognition of Carvana’s (now known as Maverick) eventual recovery from distressed valuations as precedent for his ability to identify undervalued structural positions.
The “Apolitical Collateral” Advantage
Central to Jackson’s thesis is Bitcoin’s unique characteristic as apolitical asset—the cryptocurrency responds to no nation’s central bank, no treasury department’s whims, and no political faction’s interests. This distinction becomes increasingly valuable as geopolitical tensions create incentives for currency weaponization.
The United States has wielded monetary and financial system control as strategic tool repeatedly, particularly post-2022 when sanctions against Russia included SWIFT exclusions and freezing of foreign reserves. These actions demonstrated to nations worldwide that holding U.S. dollar reserves and dollar-denominated assets creates strategic vulnerability. Any government perceived as adversarial to U.S. interests risks capital freezing, sanctions implementation, and financial system exclusion.
Bitcoin, being decentralized and stored on distributed ledgers, cannot be seized by any government. No treasury secretary can freeze it. No central bank can control its supply. Sanctions cannot restrict access. These properties make Bitcoin uniquely attractive as collateral for nations seeking to reduce dependence on any single currency or political system.
“Bitcoin is much superior as collateral because it is digital and apolitical, sitting outside central banks and the influence of whoever the latest treasury secretary is,” Jackson emphasized, capturing the strategic advantage of Bitcoin’s independence from political control.
Challenges and Critiques: Why Vision 2041 Remains Speculative
Despite the mathematical elegance of Jackson’s thesis, substantial challenges exist that could prevent Bitcoin’s evolution into global collateral layer. These critiques deserve serious consideration:
Volatility Concerns: Bitcoin’s price has experienced 80% drawdowns during bear markets. As collateral backing sovereign debt, such volatility would create enormous instability. If a nation borrowed against Bitcoin when priced at $100,000, then watched it decline to $20,000, the collateral value would plummet catastrophically, creating debt crises.
Regulatory Resistance: Central banks and governments have incentives to maintain control over their monetary and financial systems. Adopting Bitcoin as collateral would represent surrender of monetary policy independence. The Federal Reserve, ECB, People’s Bank of China, and other central banks are unlikely to voluntarily cede control to decentralized cryptocurrency.
Technical Scalability: Bitcoin’s current transaction throughput (approximately 7 transactions per second) would require dramatic upgrades to support global sovereign debt transactions. Layer-2 solutions and sidechains could theoretically enable scaling, but building this infrastructure would take years and introduce trust assumptions contrary to Bitcoin’s decentralization philosophy.
Bitcoin’s Unproven History: As monetary foundation, Bitcoin has only 16 years of historical data. Governments and institutions require centuries of track record before adopting assets as primary collateral. The lack of precedent creates hesitation among risk-averse institutional actors.
Competing Alternatives: Digital currencies issued by central banks (CBDCs), international currencies like Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), or multi-national reserve currencies could fulfill the collateral role without requiring Bitcoin. These alternatives might actually prove more politically palatable for governments.
The Stablecoin Bridge: Intermediate Step Toward Global Collateral
While full replacement of Eurodollars with Bitcoin collateral remains speculative, intermediate developments suggest the trajectory Jackson describes may already be underway. Bitcoin-backed stablecoins represent a crucial bridge between Bitcoin’s current role and potential future as global collateral.
Companies like Alpen Labs are developing Bitcoin-collateralized stablecoins—essentially creating dollar-pegged assets backed by Bitcoin rather than fiat currency reserves. This structure allows holders to get bitcoins while maintaining price stability through sophisticated collateralized debt protocols. The infrastructure breakthrough combines Bitcoin ZK rollups (zero-knowledge proofs enabling smart contracts on Bitcoin) with Liquity V2 protocol architecture.
These Bitcoin-backed stablecoins serve multiple functions supporting Jackson’s thesis:
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Collateral Experimentation: Stablecoins enable testing of Bitcoin-backed financial systems on smaller scale before potential full sovereign adoption
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Yield Generation: Borrowing protocols create positive returns on Bitcoin holdings, incentivizing accumulation
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Regulatory Navigation: Stablecoins operate within existing financial frameworks while introducing Bitcoin into collateral calculations
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Transition Infrastructure: As stablecoins scale, the financial system gains familiarity with Bitcoin-based collateral systems
Market Signals: Evidence Supporting Jackson’s Thesis
Several recent developments suggest institutional interest in Bitcoin as collateral is growing, potentially validating aspects of Jackson’s framework:
Sovereign Interest: Multiple nations have publicly considered Bitcoin allocation to foreign reserves. El Salvador formally adopted Bitcoin as legal tender. Hungary’s central bank added Bitcoin to reserves. These moves, though limited in scale, represent official recognition of Bitcoin’s value as government asset.
Corporate Treasury Strategies: MicroStrategy , Tesla , and SpaceX have accumulated substantial Bitcoin holdings as corporate treasury reserves, demonstrating institutional comfort treating Bitcoin as balance sheet asset comparable to cash and securities.
Institutional Adoption Acceleration: BlackRock , Fidelity , and other major asset managers now offer regulated Bitcoin investment products, indicating professional finance recognition of Bitcoin’s role as fundamental asset class.
Collateral Innovation: The development of Bitcoin-backed financial infrastructure (stablecoins, lending protocols, derivatives) suggests market participants are actively building plumbing for Bitcoin-collateralized systems.
Jackson’s Investment Strategy: EMJX and Execution
Jackson is not merely theorizing about Bitcoin’s future; his firm EMJ Capital is actively implementing strategies aligned with Vision 2041. The company has announced EMJX, a crypto-focused treasury company designed to invest systematically in Bitcoin, Ethereum , and select smaller cryptocurrencies.
This move positions EMJ Capital to benefit from the collateral layer transition if it materializes, while also demonstrating Jackson’s actual commitment to Bitcoin beyond rhetorical support. EMJX operates similarly to MicroStrategy’s treasury strategy—deploying significant capital into cryptocurrencies while maintaining corporate structure that allows clients to gain exposure without directly navigating cryptocurrency exchanges.
The strategy aligns with Jackson’s historical investment philosophy. He built EMJ Capital’s reputation by identifying severely undervalued situations where market consensus proved wrong. Carvana, despite its high-profile bankruptcy struggles, eventually recovered as market recognized its underlying business value and turnaround potential. Jackson applies this same contrarian framework to Bitcoin—recognizing that current valuations might fundamentally underestimate Bitcoin’s potential if it becomes global collateral layer.
The Practical Path to Vision 2041: Timeline and Catalysts
For Jackson’s $50 million target to materialize by 2041, specific catalysts and timeline milestones would need to occur:
2026-2030 (Years 1-5): Initial sovereign Bitcoin allocation adoption, likely driven by geopolitical tension increase or currency depreciation concerns. A few nations begin diversifying reserves toward Bitcoin, creating demonstration effect encouraging others.
2031-2036 (Years 6-11): Stablecoin infrastructure matures, enabling Bitcoin-backed lending and collateral systems to scale. Central banks begin experimenting with Bitcoin-based settlement infrastructure. Bitcoin achieves widespread recognition as legitimate treasury asset class.
2037-2041 (Years 12-16): Critical mass of sovereign adoption occurs, with 30-50% of major nations maintaining substantial Bitcoin reserves. Financial system recognizes Bitcoin as primary neutral collateral. Price re-ratings reflect this structural role shift.
This timeline requires multiple radical shifts in institutional thinking and geopolitical circumstances. Central bank conservatism, regulatory resistance, and technological challenges could easily delay or prevent this transition.
Investor Implications: What Vision 2041 Means for Those Seeking to Get Bitcoins
For individuals evaluating whether to accumulate Bitcoin or considering how to get bitcoins through various channels, Jackson’s thesis offers important perspective:
Long-Term Conviction: The Vision 2041 framework is fundamentally a long-term bet, requiring 15+ year investment horizons. Short-term traders seeking quick profits would find this thesis irrelevant; patient capital seeking generational wealth preservation aligns better with the framework.
Systemic Risk Hedge: If Jackson proves partially correct—even if Bitcoin doesn’t become full collateral layer—the cryptocurrency’s value would appreciate meaningfully through institutional adoption alone. This creates portfolio insurance value against currency debasement and geopolitical instability.
Scaling Uncertainty: The path from $91,000 to $50 million involves enormous uncertainty about technological scaling, institutional adoption, and regulatory acceptance. Investors should maintain psychological preparedness for years of volatility and setbacks interspersed with potential breakthrough moments.
Complementary Positions: Rather than committing entire wealth to Bitcoin as sole asset, strategic positioning combining Bitcoin with other alternatives (gold, real estate, cash reserves) provides diversification while maintaining exposure to collateral layer thesis.
The Radical Reimagining: Financial System Transformation
Jackson’s Vision 2041 represents not merely technological or asset price prediction but rather fundamental reimagining of global financial system architecture. Moving from Eurodollar collateral to Bitcoin collateral would constitute revolutionary change comparable to Bretton Woods transition or gold standard abandonment.
Such transformation would require:
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Geopolitical Consensus: Nations worldwide would need to accept Bitcoin as neutral collateral despite differing interests
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Technical Solutions: Scalability, privacy, and settlement infrastructure would require solving decades of challenging engineering problems
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Institutional Restructuring: Central banks, treasuries, and regulatory frameworks would require fundamental redesign around Bitcoin-based systems
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Loss of Monetary Sovereignty: Nations would accept constraint on monetary policy independence in exchange for apolitical collateral
These requirements remain extraordinarily challenging and perhaps improbable. Yet Jackson’s historical success identifying undervalued situations suggests serious consideration of his thesis despite its radicalism. For those seeking to get bitcoins with vision of potential systemic role transformation, his framework provides intellectual foundation for long-term conviction.
