bitcoin

How could bitcoin possibly reach $10,000 in two years?

How could bitcoin possibly reach $10,000 in two years?

I have heard quite a few people say that BTC could very likely reach $10,000 in two years, but what would need to happen for such exponential growth in a year?

bitcoin price $10k

Bitcoin just needs to keep being Bitcoin. Governments just need to keep printing money, restricting financial freedoms, and manipulating markets.

Nothing other than a continuation of current global trends is required. Even a sharp change in global trends would invoke uncertainty and likely cause Bitcoin to appreciate. Bitcoin simply needs to survive; and all signs points towards its thriving.

Just wait until 21 million people each want just one.

Bitcoin’s value is not tied to its transactional capacity. It’s tied to supply vs. demand. Small and cheap transactions will have to move off-chain at some point. I suspect it will have to be done in a way that bypasses the miners’ ability to block it.

Here are what I consider the key points for such a thing to happen:

  • Wider, increasingly positive public perception of Bitcoin
  • Lower barrier entry to buying bitcoin.
  • Wider acceptance of bitcoin as an alternative payment method.
  • The scarcity of new bitcoins.

I think there is still too much mining and too much early investors selling for us to hit that any time soon. The $1000+ price should flush out some of the early investors but the miners are still ever-present. Might have to wait until the next halving.

Bitcoin can reach $10,000 some day. I give it at minimum 3 years to achieve this. Would expect something more like 5 years.

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Long term Bitcoin price estimate

Long term Bitcoin price estimate

There is an interesting way to speculate on the potential value of bitcoin is comparing it to other global asset classes. In terms of “store of value” purposes, global precious metals are valued at $800 billion for silver, and $7 trillion for gold.

When Bitcoin establishes itself as a “money” which is accepted by many vendors, then it is suggested to compare it to the measures of currency: USD at $13.2T, EUR at $10.1T (USD), CNY at $23T (USD).

Reasonable future value of Bitcoin: $5T-15T. This is reasonable, even if it is as high as any one major currency, because it spans globally and is open to a larger total pool of buyers.

These forecasts estimate a $315k-950k price of bitcoin.

Price on BTC halving day, Nov 2012: $12.50
Price on BTC halving day, July 2016: $645

This is 50X price increase between halvings. If we were to be pessimistic and say the next halving would result in half the increase, we’re looking at 25X.

Price prediction on next bitcoin halving day in 2020: $16,000.

It’s a scenario worth considering. However, I think you’re overlooking that bitcoin is a novel asset class; as such so long as it doesn’t fail in some horrible, fundamental way, then I don’t see it falling significantly long term.

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