bitcoin

Bitcoins Forks in 2018

Bitcoins Forks in 2018

So far Bitcoin had the following successful forks in 2017:

  • Bitcoin Cash (BCH or BCC) was the first bitcoin fork with emergency difficulty adjustment (EDA)
  • Bitcoin Gold (BTG) is the GPU-friendly forked coin based off of bitcoin, was created on October 25 to compete with BCH and to fight mining centralization
  • Bitcoin Diamond (BCD) was forked at block 494604 and adopted by more than 30 exchanges.

Bitcoin forks planned for 2018

New bitcoin forks to come in December 2017 and during 2018:

  • Super Bitcoin (SBTC) is planned to fork at block 498888. The total number of SBTC is 21.21 million of which 210,000 are pre-mined.
  • Bitcoin Platinum(BTP) – this fork plans to fork at block 498533 on December 12. It is said that BTP is GPU-mining-friendly with no pre-mine, and that it will adhere to the Segwit2x solution.
  • Lightning Bitcoin (LBTC) will fork at block 499999 – it was initiated by the European team Lightning. LBTC will be the first Bitcoin-forked coin to adopt the delegated Proof-of-Stake feature.
  • Bitcoin God (GOD) – planned for the Christmas Day 2017 by Chandler Guo who said that he is ”a bitcoin Santa designated by God” to distribute free “candies” to bitcoin holders.
  • Bitcoin Cash Plus (BCP) is planned to fork at block 501407 on or around January 2, 2018. It will adopt the Equihash mining algorithm.
  • Bitcoin Silver (BTSI) will fork in December 2017, but the exact block is still not decided. It changes Bitcoin’s proof-of-work algorithm from SHA256 to Equihash.
  • Bitcoin Uranium (BUM) is also planned for December 2017 and it allows GPU and CPU mining and does not sport a pre-mine.
  • Bitcoin X  will have 210 billion in total and will be distributed to bitcoin holders on the rate of 1BTC = 10000 Bitcoin X. The exact block is still unknown.
How could bitcoin possibly reach $10,000 in two years?

How could bitcoin possibly reach $10,000 in two years?

I have heard quite a few people say that BTC could very likely reach $10,000 in two years, but what would need to happen for such exponential growth in a year?

bitcoin price $10k

Bitcoin just needs to keep being Bitcoin. Governments just need to keep printing money, restricting financial freedoms, and manipulating markets.

Nothing other than a continuation of current global trends is required. Even a sharp change in global trends would invoke uncertainty and likely cause Bitcoin to appreciate. Bitcoin simply needs to survive; and all signs points towards its thriving.

Just wait until 21 million people each want just one.

Bitcoin’s value is not tied to its transactional capacity. It’s tied to supply vs. demand. Small and cheap transactions will have to move off-chain at some point. I suspect it will have to be done in a way that bypasses the miners’ ability to block it.

Here are what I consider the key points for such a thing to happen:

  • Wider, increasingly positive public perception of Bitcoin
  • Lower barrier entry to buying bitcoin.
  • Wider acceptance of bitcoin as an alternative payment method.
  • The scarcity of new bitcoins.

I think there is still too much mining and too much early investors selling for us to hit that any time soon. The $1000+ price should flush out some of the early investors but the miners are still ever-present. Might have to wait until the next halving.

Bitcoin can reach $10,000 some day. I give it at minimum 3 years to achieve this. Would expect something more like 5 years.

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Long term Bitcoin price estimate

Long term Bitcoin price estimate

There is an interesting way to speculate on the potential value of bitcoin is comparing it to other global asset classes. In terms of “store of value” purposes, global precious metals are valued at $800 billion for silver, and $7 trillion for gold.

When Bitcoin establishes itself as a “money” which is accepted by many vendors, then it is suggested to compare it to the measures of currency: USD at $13.2T, EUR at $10.1T (USD), CNY at $23T (USD).

Reasonable future value of Bitcoin: $5T-15T. This is reasonable, even if it is as high as any one major currency, because it spans globally and is open to a larger total pool of buyers.

These forecasts estimate a $315k-950k price of bitcoin.

Price on BTC halving day, Nov 2012: $12.50
Price on BTC halving day, July 2016: $645

This is 50X price increase between halvings. If we were to be pessimistic and say the next halving would result in half the increase, we’re looking at 25X.

Price prediction on next bitcoin halving day in 2020: $16,000.

It’s a scenario worth considering. However, I think you’re overlooking that bitcoin is a novel asset class; as such so long as it doesn’t fail in some horrible, fundamental way, then I don’t see it falling significantly long term.